reflections of a pragmatic optimist, lover of freedom

Category: Frontiers (Page 4 of 9)

The No Fear Pioneer, Episode 6: The Way Out

A rare day off presented itself, and I’ve seized it: recording a new, 10-minute episode of The No Fear Pioneer that I’ve been wanting to get to for a long while now.

You can listen on the podcast page, or on iTunes or Stitcher as soon as they pick up the episode.

Related to today’s discussion: Natan Sharansky’s Fear No Evil — the uplifting account of a man whose faithfulness to his principles, integrity, and inner compass enabled him to endure trials few of us could imagine.

The Long View

Whatever short-term mitigation of circumstances may fall out of the election results (I am not counting on anything, and expect very little), my long-term view of what we should working on hasn’t changed. There remains a strong and determined movement in the culture toward people wanting the State to provide for them and shelter them from freedom’s inherent risks, and I don’t see that shift abating — either in terms of people’s desires, or the state mechanisms they put in place to fulfill them. Progressivism operates like a ratcheting mechanism (credit to Bill Whittle for that apt analogy): It advances persistently, by gradual increments, and is only rarely reversed in small and temporary ways. Those of us who yearn to live the joyful and free-wheeling life that America’s founding generation envisioned, and that their own risks and sacrifices made possible, need to make ready to head to a new frontier, for only by going where others fear to tread will we be able to build and enjoy a thriving freedom-loving Civilization again.

“The Way Out” remains my guiding compass in this endeavor. It’s a series I continue to ponder and will add to — along with the No Fear Pioneer podcast — as new ideas arise.

I’m also looking forward to hearing what Bill has been working on and hinting at on his Stratosphere Lounge podcast, as I’ve often found myself thinking along similar lines.

I’m re-posting the “Interstellar” trailer from “100 Humans on Mars, 8 Years From Now”, as its stirring 2 minutes bear re-watching.

Do not dread the future. We are going to make it.

100 Humans on Mars, 8 Years From Now

Apropos our burning need for a way out to a new frontier: This is exactly the kind of thing we need to be working toward.

For the gist of why, the first “Interstellar” trailer articulated the answer in a beautifully profound two minutes:

For the logistical nuts and bolts of how, see Elon Musk’s milestone talk at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress last Tuesday:

According to the plan Musk outlined, SpaceX proposes to deliver an unmanned cargo shipment to Mars in 2018, more to follow in subsequent years, and a first wave of settlers — not a mere handful of astronauts, but a colonizing force of 100 — a mere eight years from now.

Tim Urban, whose detailed profile of Musk and SpaceX is a superbly great read, lays out the details of Musk’s Big F—-ing Rocket in his uniquely engaging, profoundly profane style at Wait But Why. (“G-rated” version now available.)

Some take-homes I jotted down from Musk’s talk:

  • Earth-Mars rendezvous is every ~26 months
  • With SpaceX’s transport, Musk estimates 3-5 months travel time
  • “Raptor” engine that will power the planned transport (to the tune of 42 of them):
    • scaled-up Falcon 9 booster, carbon fiber
    • 382 sec Isp in vacuum (361 @ sea level)
    • center cluster gimbals for steering capability; most on periphery will be fixed orientation
  • 7% of propellant needed for boostback & landing
  • up to 450T cargo to Mars
  • at least 100 passengers per ship, eventually up to 200 or 300

The key thing to emphasize is that this is not just some back-of-the-envelope daydreaming and a few artist sketches. Musk and SpaceX have concrete plans to build and do all of this, very soon now. Nothing in space endeavors is easy or guaranteed to stay on schedule, but with persistence it can be done, and thanks to Musk’s and SpaceX’s persistence and vision to date, we are now much closer than we have ever been to achieving the long dream of “humans as a multi-planetary species.”

We are still pioneers. We’ve barely begun.


Related content here:

Independence Day Thoughts: A Change in Perspective

I’ve been taking a lengthy break from the news cycle — the first in a long while. Disappointment at Ted Cruz’ withdrawal from the presidential race was probably what prompted it more than any other single event, but it’s also been a long time coming. I’ve observed that constant engagement with the nonstop news machine tends to create a toxic, bogged-down perspective — one whose opportunity cost is difficulty thinking about the longer term and seeing the bigger picture. The day-to-day bad news is made worse by the fact that much of it is foreseeable — the result of decisions being made based on flawed theories whose siren song of wishful thinking garners steadfast devotion. Watching the results unfold wears on the spirit after a while; you get weary of playing Cassandra. The world we inhabit today has become profoundly disconnected from the culture I grew up in and fell in love with, and not for the better. The inconvenient terrible acts of some are excused, while others who espouse our most cherished foundational values are painted as the worst of villains, as befits the “narrative”, the demagoguery of the day. In this light, the 24/7 news cycle resembles more and more a play full of sound and fury, that in the end signifies very little about the long term. Reportage often tells one more about what bien pensants have decided we ought to think about a topic, than about what factually happened when and why. Like carbonated sugar water, it becomes easy to give up, once you realize how little you miss it and how well you can live without it. Disengaging for a while has enabled me to see a bigger picture that is too easily obscured by obsession with the tumultuous short-term. It seems to me that history is cyclical. A frontier culture founded on the ideal of freedom lasts only so long before we sabotage ourselves with self-doubt born of boredom and insufficient challenge, of removal from continuous salutary testing of our ideas and efforts against reality. Eventually the clock runs out on any given place, and the imperative presents itself: those who wish to rekindle the great experiment must find a way out to a new frontier. So I’ve come to realize that I can either curse my luck for what things have become, or choose to connect with a profound sense of gratitude for the time and place I grew up in — one that showed me something truly beautiful and precious that no slander can diminish, for I lived it and saw it with my own eyes. Knowing what is possible is a huge part of the battle to rekindle it. We have a recipe that is portable — one that can perform its miracles again elsewhere, if we only take care to understand what it’s taught us.

On Independence Day, it’s traditional to think of the events that impelled the American colonists to separation from England, of the hard-fought Revolutionary War that followed and the acts of courage and sacrifice to which we owe our precious Liberty. This year, I find myself thinking also of the individual assertions of independence that quietly preceded all of that, as royal subjects one by one decided they’d had enough, and chose to embrace great risk in trade for the mere opportunity to build new lives by their own hands in a far-off land — in a place across an ocean where they could live in true, untrammeled freedom. Today we find ourselves on the cusp of a similar juncture. When a suitable destination presents itself, what happens next will at first happen quietly, and will probably pass largely unnoticed. The wheels that will impel some to that journey are already in motion. For those few who heed the call, the results will be nothing short of transformative. The characteristically American reactor will know reignition in a new place. True freedom will yield its generous bounty unhindered, and courageous men and women will once again celebrate a hard-won and therefore precious life, forged of their own efforts, in Liberty.

For the short-term, I may yet feel gloom. For the long term, that gloom is far outshined by stirring beauty that impels me forward, my heart aglow with joy. I cannot wait to see what our tribe of restless wanderers creates next.

Escape From the Cities?

Speaking of Bill, Steve, and Scott: While gathering links to their latest work, I ran across this Trifecta gem I’d completely missed last year, that resonates uncannily with a thought I’ve been mulling over quite a bit lately: Maybe cities are a mistake. So many of the problems and vulnerabilities we face seem to result from the helplessness and dependency that dense urban centers engender. Cities insulate us from the realities of what is and isn’t essential for our survival. Urban living saps us of our self-reliance, and deprives us of the continual, salutary testing and re-testing against nature that would otherwise drive us to cultivate essential skills and build resilience. It’s anonymizing, and leaves us dependent on corruptible and inevitably corrupt, wasteful, and unreliable centralized institutions, where we might otherwise develop mutual reliance on our neighbors in a more resilient, decentralized, voluntary web of trust for mutual benefit. City life makes it too easy for us to disconnect from reality, in ways that jeopardize our ability to deal with said reality when it rears its ugly head. We become, in a real sense, victims of our own success. Furthermore, dense urban centers make our thusly-concentrated populations easy targets for Jihadi lunatics who are just dying to prove the extent of their depravity on a massive scale.

I say all of this as someone who loves many of the products of city life — from technological marvels to universities, museums, and cuisine from all over the world — and has experienced life in many U.S. cities — from Los Angeles, where I grew up, to Berkeley, Oakland, San Jose, San Francisco, and New York. It just seems that the negatives have come to outweigh the positives, and we may benefit from a change in direction. Dense urban centers of population may be largely an Industrial Age relic that we’d do well to re-assess look beyond. In a time when much of our activity now takes place in a knowledge and service economy, it may be entirely possible to de-centralize our populations without abandoning (and perhaps even better facilitating) the continued advancement of positive technological developments.

Having moved to an 1880s farmhouse in northern New Jersey two years ago, I feel like I have one foot already in a more rural world, and the sense of well-being I’ve gained has led me to wonder what else I’ve been missing. I haven’t worried much about imminent Apocalypse since growing up in the 1980s under fear of a Soviet ICBM attack. But the direction things seem to be going in is awakening dormant prepper/survivalist instincts in me. If the center will not hold, how will the remnant of what we are keep the flame of civilization lit until we can make a way to piece things together again? It’s been decades since this old place was worked as a farm (with the benefit of surrounding acreage that’s since been sliced up and sold to home builders). But I find myself thinking: even if the results don’t make much of a dent in our weekly dependence on grocery stores, learning some basic skill with growing a few small crops might be a good and useful thing. (Stay tuned; maybe I’ll have some Spring planting news soon.)

This is the kind of stuff that’s been on my mind as I contemplate the short-term mitigation of circumstances we need before we’ll be able to achieve a longer-term way out to the next place. Bill, Steve, and Scott bring some interesting perspectives to the table in this Trifecta — and the Green Acres theme is a nice touch. I remember watching the show at my aunt’s house growing up. Maybe that was a foreshadowing of my life to come?

Crabapples are all we’re growing right now, by the way. Feeding the deer, and leading my 3-year-old son to ask with concern whether they contain tiny crabs, seem to be about all they’re good for. But the trees do give us some very nice flowers:

flowers on one of our apple trees

“To the stars, through hard work”

Apropos The Way Out and The No Fear Pioneer Episode 3, “The Next Frontier”: Glenn Reynolds reports from a workshop on interstellar travel:

Just a couple of decades ago, one noted, the only people who firmly believed that there were planets circling other stars were science fiction fans. Now we’re discovering new planets all the time, and some estimates suggest that there may be billions of these exoplanets throughout our galaxy. So that’s one reason to be talking about interstellar travel: Now there’s somewhere to go.

Another reason is that while talk is no substitute for action, it can be a pretty important precursor. Much of our progress in space to date has been achieved because of people (usually science fiction fans) who wanted to explore places where no human had ever gone. As physicist and science fiction writer Greg Benford remarked, ultimately, we can do this, “but you can’t do it if you stop thinking about it.” Science fiction keeps people thinking about it, and that’s good.

As Glenn is fond of saying: “Faster, please!”

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